[SMM Analysis] Total imports of lead concentrate January-February 2024 fell by over 30% year-on-year, domestic lead ore shortage continued in first quarter

According to customs data, the import volume of lead concentrate from January to February 2024 was 154,800 physical tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.23%. By country, the main lead concentrate supplying countries from January to February were Russia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Namibia. According to SMM research, the main types of imported lead ore are lead sulfide ore and lead polymetallic sulfide ore, with a small amount of lead concentrate imported in the form of lead oxide ore. Smelters have extremely high requirements for other valuable metals in imported ores. In addition, lead-containing silver concentrate is also an important raw material for the recycling of smelters, and the import volume of silver concentrate from January to February was 289,400 physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.12%.

According to SMM shipping data, global ore export data in January fell from the high level in December. Overseas lead ore supply is not ample. Lead ores rich in other valuable metals are favored by smelters, and import lead concentrate TCs are still on a downward trend. The lead ore import window is still closed in the first quarter of 2024. Coupled with the falling TCs, smelters generally purchased only under long-term orders, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling of bulk orders is extremely low. Entering March, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday has ended, but due to the tight supply of domestic silver-lead ore, imported ore TCs may fall again. According to SMM shipping data, almost no lead ore arrived at the port in early March. Subsequent imports of lead concentrate may be difficult to record positive growth, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage may be difficult to alleviate. The LME inventory has increased significantly recently, and the enthusiasm for capital counter-investment is high. If the lead futures market continues to be strong internally and weak externally, it may provide opportunities for imported ores. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether there will be an opportunity to open the import window in 2024.